Risk Informed Decision-making

(Work Package 1)

Quantitative risk assessment (QRA) is a systematic methodology for the application of the mathematical construct of risk which tries to identify all possible events that can lead to an undesired end state, thus evaluating an overall estimate of risk for the system being analyzed (e.g. a nuclear reactor). The QRA is a powerful instrument for finding risk dominant sequences in technical systems which then can be taken care of to prevent the sequences to occur. QRA is best suited for large technical systems where the failure probabilities of the components in the system can be estimated with relatively large certainty.

However, in spite of its success story as part of reactor safety work, risk-informed decision making using QRA as an important element has limitations when it comes to decisions on the political level, e.g. concerning the use of nuclear power as compared to other energy sources or the siting of reactor power plants. For these decisions, the mathematical construct of risk is not sufficient. Other dimensions in a more comprehensive risk assessment which takes into account social and perceptive factors then enter the scene.

The European Commission's Joint Research Centre - Institute for Energy (JRC-IE) develops a web-based information system to publish information on current risk levels from different energy technologies in a comparative way, the Energy Risks Monitor (ERMON). The intention is that ERMON shall be a EU-wide platform to interact with and provide interested stakeholders - government, policy makers and different lobby/interest groups, incl. the general public - with easily understandable information on comparative risk/benefit aspects of different energy technologies. The goal is to improve the comparison of risks and benefits from different energy systems, as well as the communication about risk, benefits and uncertainties related to different energy-related stakeholders.

The objectives of this work package are to:

• explore the possibilities and limitations of quantitative risk assessment in risk governance, for example in comparing risk between options of  energy production.
   
• create interactive communicative services where stakeholders themselves can analyse, compare and communicate risks and benefits of ERMON

Contacts:
Christian Kirchsteiger christian.kirchsteiger@jrc.nl
Ana Vetere  ana.vetere@jrc.nl